$FNF Value Update

April 30, 2011

Fidelity National Financial, Inc

$FNF  

Diverse business model. (Title, P&C, Benefits)

Q111 results reported 4/29/11,  met expectations without solid performing Q/Q Sales Growth. Q/Q Sales Growth 10% :(

Commentary of results indicated a lot of uncertainty in the title industry due to declining market for refinances , although FNF seemed confident full year outlook would be met. 

Current fundamental valuation is appealing. Q/Q Sales performance is a concern. 

Current dividend yield of 3.11% . Dividend performance has been under pressure since 2008. 

The current price is outside of the upper daily Bollinger Band I will patiently wait on the price to consolidate. Weekly chart looks fantastic with the price just now breaking out of a stage 4 consolidation. 

$XRTX Value Update

April 30, 2011

Xyratex

$ XRTX  


LOW LOW LOW LOW VOLUME !!!!

Current negative Q/Q EPS performance.
Poor Q/Q sales growth 

March 30 2011 earnings report indicted several negative business factors. 

2.5" net book hard drive demand is significantly decreasing. 

Industry consolidation is creating uncertainty. 

Japan Tsunami situation has created negative supplier issues. 

I will not initiate a position in XRTX at this time. 

I will continue to monitor business circumstances, fundamentals, and chart.

Market Lingo. $$STUDY

RR: Risk Reward
TL: Trendline
EOD: End of Day
BO: Breakout
HOD: High of Day
LOD: Low Day
ILMA: I Lost My Ass.

I have been focusing a lot of energy on learning the "Art of Stock Speculation"

 A great collaboration venue for stock traders is Stocktwits. Create an account on Stocktwits and enjoy the Stock Speculation collaboration.

Stock Speculation is a business and should only be executed as a business; ZERO EMOTION !!

I have learned that the most important aspect of Stock Trading is Risk and Money Management. There are many great websites that have a lot of information on Risk and Money Management. Here is an insightful link on Risk and Money Management. http://www.robertsinn.com/2010/12/07/risk-and-reward/#idc-container

Remember You must define your edges. Your Edges are you only opportunity in an unpredictable and random event environment. Your Edges are your Wisdom.  Why not use what you know !!


Your Cash is your Inventory. Once your Cash Inventory is depleted your OUT OF THE GAME !!
You must NEVER apply your  "rent"  money towards a trade....NEVER!!

I contain my risk to less than 2% of each account I trade from !!

So What is an Edge ?

So what exactly is an Edge?

An edge is an event variable that increases the probability of a positive outcome.

I utilize relevant life and business experiences (Wisdom) to shape my Edges.

If I stop eating potato chips I will increase my odds of loosing weight.

If I purchase a stock, for a long position when the 10 day moving average is above the30 day moving average I increase my chances of making money.

For me, experiences in life and business are made up of four unique components. People, Places, Things, and Situations.

What type of edge can we create to increase the odds of a positive outcome with People, Places, Things, and Situations.

I have drawn the conclusion that these components create random events; and these random events tend to generate unpredictable outcomes.   

You may have heard the phrase "Hedge Your Bets"  For me, an Edge is an informed action.

What do I know (information) that can help me achieve a positive result?

Run or walk, sit or stand, buy or sell, raise an eyebrow or smile are all actions that I might take depending on what information I have presented to me during a situation.

I take an action when I am interested in trying to achieve a positive outcome to a life or business situation.

I rarely take action if I am already experiencing a positive outcome.  I just keep doing what I am doing to continue to achieve the positive outcome.

Am I willing to utilize my Wisdom to take a certain action that has the likelihood  of a positive result?

I am finally a Blogger !!

Over the last couple of years I have found the "blog o sphere" to be a very useful resource when I am trying to solve a problem or gain insight into a subject that I am unfamiliar with. I am fascinated by the blog community and the communities willingness to unconditionally share ideas and perspectives. I feel that blogging is important to our society; so I decided that it was my turn to start Paying it Forward; by giving back some of my thoughts and ideas. My goal for "Shape Your Edge" is to provide a forum that allows me to journal and log my current ideas and perspectives.